CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS ISSUE

PAULBROKSis the author of Into the Silent Land (Atlantic Books) HARVEYCOLEisaneconomicconsultant ANDREWCOOPERisdirector ofPopulus MARKCOUSINSis the director ofthe BBC’s Scene byScene NICKCROWEwas the drummerfor the rock bandGayDad SHEREENELFEKIis healthcare correspondent for the Economist STEPHENEVERSONiswriting abookon metaphysics and the mind HASSANMFATTAHistheeditor ofthe newspaper Iraq Today JONATHANFENBYwaseditoroftheSouth China MorningPost and the Observer ROYFOSTERisprofessor of Irish history at Hertford College, Oxford JONATHANFREEDLANDisajournalist ANTHONYGIDDENSis the author of Runaway World (Profile Books) DAVIDGOODHARTiseditor ofProspect DAVIDHERMANisatelevision producer PERVEZHOODBHOYteaches physics at Quaid-e-AzamUniversity, Islamabad TIMKINGis awriter living in France TOMKIRKWOODis the author of The Endof Age (Profile Books) JOSHUAKURLANTZICKis foreign editor of the New Republic ELENALAPPINisawriter andjournalist GIDEONLICHFIELDisMoscow correspondent for the Economist ANATOLLIEVENworks for theCarnegie Endowment for International Peace MAGNUSLINKLATERisacolumnist for the Times DAVIDMARQUANDis the author of Decline of the Public (Polity Press) ANDREWMORAVCSIKisdirector ofthe European programme at Harvard OLIVERMORTONis the author of MappingMars (4th Estate) HENRYSHUKMAN’snovel Darien Dogs (JonathanCape) will bepublishedinMay SEBASTIANSMEEis aformer art critic for the SydneyMorningHerald IANSTEWARTis aprofessor of mathematics at WarwickUniversity RUYTEIXEIRAis asenior fellowat the Century Foundation BELLATHOMASisafreelancejournalist andexhibitions curator

2 PROSPECTMarch2004

contents Issue ninety-six March 2004

A L T E R N A T I V E

PLUS FRENCHSECULARISMTHERISEANC FALLOf RAP ’ ” '" HOWTOEDITANIRAQINEWSPAPER

COVER STORIES 2 8 Demon in the ce lla r ANATOLLIEVEN What has turned America from a conservative power into a revolutionary one? Part of the answer can be found in Jacksonian nationalism, which finds a voice among aggrieved white Americans.

OPINIONS 1 0 Reasons of state DAVIDGOODHART Can we accept aplea of“justified evasiveness”in the government’s case for war in Iraq?Not quite.

1 2 Editing Gilligan MAGNUSLINKLATER If the BBChadmanaged Andrew Gilligan properly, and he had done his job, what might his story have been?

1 3 Neo-Stalinism GIDEONLICHFIELD Putin will win aSoviet-style victory in March. But the Russians don’t care.

1 6 Awayday spaceships OLIVERMORTON Bush’s space initiative marks the final end of the von Braun paradigm.

AM ER IC A S P E C IA L

3 4 Another America JOSHUAKURLANTZICK If the Democrats had won in 2000, howwouldAmerican foreign policy after 9/11 have turned out? Would President Gore have ended up at the gates ofBaghdad?What would have happened to the western alliance? 40 Emerging Democrats RUYTEIXEIRA Long-termdemographic trends are shifting America awayfroma50:50 nation and towards the Democrats. The Republicans have managed to delay the realignment, but expect a competitive election in November.

1 9 Spiral o f s ilen ce ANDREWCOOPER Conservatives used to lie to pollsters about their voting intentions. Now Labour supporters are doing the same.

DEBATE 22 Does New Labour deserve a third term ? ANTHONYGIDDENSvs DAVIDMARQUAND TwoofBritain’s top progressives debate the Blair record.

ESSAY 46 Rap’s last tape NICKCROWE In the 25 years since the first hip hop record, the music has run out of ideas and its profanities have become little more than asoundtrack to greed.