CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS ISSUE PAULBARKERis a writer and broadcaster, and is a former editor of New Society

OWENBENNETTJONES is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad RODRIC BRAITHWAITE was British ambassador to Russia (1988-92) and, briefly, chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee ZBIGNIEWBRZEZINSKI was national security adviser to President Carter EDWARDCHANCELLORis the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation (Macmillan) DAVIDCRYSTAL is the author of Language Death (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming) PETER FONAGYis Freud memorial professor of psychoanalysis at UCL, and director of the Anna Freud Centre. He is co-editor of Psychoanalysis on the Move (Routledge) MARKFRANKLAND is a former foreign correspondent for the Observer, and author of Child o f my Time (Chatto &Windus) CARLOG^BLER is a writer based in Enniskillen. He is the author of W9 & Other Lives (Marion Boyars) HERBGREER is a freelance writer based in Manchester KATEKELLAWAYwrites for the Observer

PAULKRUGMANis professor of economics at MIT and author of The Accidental Theorist (Norton) SIMON MAYis a fellow in philosophy at Birkbeck College and the author of The Pocket Philosopher: A Handbook o f Aphorisms (Metro Books, ,£7.99). To order a copy telephone 0500 418419 JONATHAN POWER is a syndicated columnist who writes on international affairs BEN ROGERS is the author of AJ Ayer, A Life (Chatto &Windus) NICOLAS ROTHWELL is the author of the novel, Heaven and Earth (Duffy & Snellgrove) and writes for the Australian newspaper STELLATILLYARDis a biographer and historian, and the author of Aristocrats (Chatto &Windus) TOMWILKIEis head of the biomedical ethics programme at the Wellcome Trust and former science editor of the Independent

LEWISWOLPERTis professor of anatomy and developmental biology at UCL, and author of Malignant Sadness: An Anatomy o f Depression (Faber & Faber) PEREGRINEWORSTHORNEis a former editor of the Sunday Telegraph

2 PROSPECT November 199.9

contents

Issue forty-six November 1999

OPINIONS 10 W hy M ilo sevic cracked ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI The sudden capitulation of the Serbs in Kosovo was the result of a desperate double-cross gone wrong.

1 1 T h e genom e g e ts political TOMWILKIE How can we keep the genome in the public domain?

12 Crooked th in k in g over rail safety BEN ROGERS The Paddington rail disaster should not skew our spending priorities.

After the coup.

14 W ill Pakistan fall apart? OWEN BENNETT JONES The military coup will not remove the Islamist and nationalist threats to Pakistan's stability. But will it hasten a subcontinental nuclear holocaust?

Secrets and spies.

26 S ecret sensations RODRIC BRAITHWAITE Even during the cold war, secret intelligence achieved rather little. In the post-cold war world do secret agencies still have a role at all?

30 T h e art o f news PEREGRINE WORSTHORNE Fifty years ago, journalism was all about facts. Today, newspapers are dominated by the writerintellectual who is more concerned with perfecting his prose than reporting the news.

ESSAY Nicolas Rothwell on Australia’s referendum to dump the Queen

ESSAYS 21 A lan’s bubble EDWARD CHANCELLOR Alan Greenspan, the second most powerful man in the US, adheres to the “radical capitalism” of Ayn Rand. But by following rather than leading the markets, he has created a bubble.

M o s t A u stralians favour a republic, but th e referendum is n o t y e t w on. In s tead, th e cam paign has revealed th e w id en in g gap b e tw een e l ite and ordinary Australians. PAGE 34