Contents

AFRICA IN THE NEWS 5 Somalia's 21 -year regime faces final days 6 Cape Verde electorate vetoes one-party rule

6 Afbiz Quiz

7 Liberia rebels threaten united assault

7 Psst

8 IMF plans help for oil importers

8 Agenda 9 South Africa Watchdog

FEATURE 10 Opec aim s to su rv iv e G u lf C r is is 12 Forecasts p re d ic t o i l p r ice w i l l fa ll

COUNTRY BRIEFINGS 15 N igeria: Cautious budget seeks prudent use of resources

17 Zambia: Companies are caught in multiparty crossfire

18 Cameroon: Oil-price rise brings temporary reprieve

42 15 Cameroonian firms for privatisation 47 Mozambique: Chances of peace bring economic hope

KENYA SURVEY

23 Overview: Kenya faces up to old problems and new challenges

24 Kenya E conom ic Ind ica to rs 25 Banking: Bankers lose faith in confidence measures 27 In vestm ent: Will EPZ incentives really attract investors?

35 Environm ent: Planners take action 36 Kenyan families are getting smaller

37 Mombasa: Kenya’s second city is poised for investment boom

38 Port improvements are under way at Mombasa 39 Tourism : Rising costs hit profits, but tourists are still coming

40 A g r ic u ltu re : Coffee faces its darkest hour

________________ SECTORS________________

49 A g r ic u ltu re : Zambian incentives for barley growers 49 In b r ie f : Zimbabwe opts for indigenous trees; Ugandan horticultural farmers win grant; Mauritius land development

50 Banking & Finance: Namibia's investment code

51 Zambia wrestles with big money problems 51 Uganda at last approves its investment code 52 Energy & M in in g : US investors back Zimbabwe platinum

52 Zimbabwe electricity funds 52 New rutile mine for Sierra Leone 53 Swaziland asbestos mine wins another reprieve

53 Chad will tap its own oil reserves 54 Environm ent: Uganda's valuable butterflies

54 Cameroon protects birds 55 Tanzania sets up Environment Ministry

55 Zambia acts on industrial pollution

56 Manufacturing & Technology: Tanzanian banks computerise

57 Cameroonian produces tropicalised microcomputers 57 Market Network: Africa loses as Gatt talks drag on 59 T ransport & C omm unication s : Airlines threaten boycott over

Zambian aviation-fuel ruling 60 Zimbabwe opts for British trucks

BOOKS

62 Poverty and the Planet and Namibia Women in War

Cover Photo: N a iro b i c ity c en tre ; ph o to g ra p h by L. Van Buren

T he Gulf Crisis has widened the gap between the fortunes of oil importers and oil exporters in Africa, But those who are laughing now may not be laughing later this year. NNAMDIANYADIKE forecasts prices. Page 10

N igeria’s 1991 budget,

presented on New Year’s Day, was formulated at a time of mixed oil-price signals. PINI JASON in Lagos offers a detailed analysis of both spending and revenue projections. Page 15

T his year’s KENYA SURVEY comes at a time when the Kenyan economy is at a turning point. ABs team of correspondents in Nairobi looks at the decisions facing the country’s economic managers and at what the future holds for East Africa’s most dynamic market. Page 21

African Business February 1991 3