April/May 2022


Cover story



22 Conflict prevention Taming the dogs of war Mariano Aguirre and

Patricia Lewis When AI meets humanitarianism Krisztina Csortea Info ops: the weaponization of communications

10 Ukraine: the consequences

The Big Picture China's reaction to Russian aggression Michael Cox Trump will pay for praising Putin Elaine Kamarck Remedying a global shortage of wheat Nick Shafer Saving a nation's cultural soul Helen Fitzwilliam 30 Syria Principle that led to a war criminal's conviction

Janet Anderson 32 Interview with Mazen Darwish, the lawyer who fled

torture and helped lead a landmark case Mike Higgins 34 India The BJP bandwagon rolls on Gareth Price 36 Colombia Politics paralyzed as party system collapses

Christopher Sabatini 38 Pandemic Rowing back on moves to make Covid vaccines

more widely available James Love 40 Afghanistan The Taliban will only bring stability with

foreign aid Hameed Hakimi 42 Japan The meter is running on taxi reforms Theo Beal

4 Contributors 5 The world in brief including Jargonbuster and shorts 8 Letters The nuclear threat, borders and Nicaragua 9 Beijing briefing Prosperity is put on hold Yu Jie 44 Postcard The curse of black gold Dan Collyns 46 Date with history Kidnapping of the Chibok schoolgirls

Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani 47 Review Why history isn't over yet Tony Yates

The Stasi poetry circle Roxanne Escobales 50 Culture notes Why Europe got Russia so wrong

Catherine Fieschi Cover by Sergiy Maidukov

From the Editor When we began planning this issue, the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was rumbling through Europe yet few believed it would happen. What better time to explore how to prevent conflicts, we thought.

Once the threat turned into a reality, it became more important than ever. The Russian war in Ukraine has brought home to the West the fragility of peace. Mariano Aguirre and Patricia Lewis examine the conditions that lead to war and its impacts, making a case for conflict prevention – a goal that is within reach but for a lack of political will.

The swiftly unfolding developments make measured analysis of the war a premature exercise. Instead, we map its far-reaching shocks. China is playing a game of wait-and-see as Beijing’s strategic alliance with Moscow is tested, writes Michael Cox. In the United States, Elaine Kamarck finds strong support for Ukraine could spell the end of Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party. Nick Shafer argues for western wheat diplomacy to help the Middle East and North Africa as the food supply chain is hit, while Helen Fitzwilliam looks at the race to preserve a people’s art and culture.

Outside Ukraine we look to Germany and the groundbreaking pursuit of Syrian war criminals. Janet Anderson walks us through the legal principle behind the Koblenz ruling, while we hear from Mazen Darwish, a Syrian lawyer and survivor of torture, on the complicated feelings this landmark conviction brings.

Christopher Sabatini looks forward to Colombian elections, while Gareth Price reflects on the BJP's staying power in India. And as Japanese taxi drivers come under threat, Theo Beal offers solutions to protect this traditional profession. Roxanne Escobales rescobales@chathamhouse.org Twitter: @roxy_esco

the world today | april & may 2022 | 3